A View From London   by Nick Churton, Director, Mayfair International Realty

Not something you see everyday in London

Nick Churton assesses the first few weeks of real estate market activity in 2009 and suggests that while the economic picture may still be grave in both the US and Europe, local market activity in the housing sector seems to be far from moribund.

The shiny chrome pinball of bank failures on both sides of the Atlantic still crashes around the machine, ringing up eye-watering losses as it goes.

Newspaper headlines sensationally remind us of the effect this is having.  But some media can often be out of step with breaking real estate market news.  Experts as they may be, news reporters are not working day-by-day in real estate offices and they are often the innocent mouthpieces of received wisdom.  Real estate statistics and trends do not have the immediacy of the stock market, they take longer to filter through and then distort the up-to-date truth.

Fortunately each piece of negative media news makes one fewer bad headline in the future.  This downturn will end, just as certainly as the Great Depression of the 1920s ended.  Already, in 2009, there are signs of increased activity in the real estate market.  These are not ‘green shoots’ – heaven forbid one should announce that just yet!  But there are signs that people who have to move are getting on with it.  These signs also show that many sellers have brought their hot price expectations more into line with cold reality.

It is never easy to come to terms with a loss of some equity in one’s home – especially for those who have never had to come to terms with this in the past.  But before long the desire to move on in life overcomes even the most steadfast seller when faced with the proposition that getting on may be better than holding on – especially when what they are holding on to might still be sinking.  It’s rather like asking comfortable passengers on the Titanic, before it hit the iceberg, if they would like to freeze in an over-laden lifeboat and then asking them again after the collision.  Same question.  Different answer.

We are living through a dramatic piece of economic history that will be mentioned as much in the future as the Great Depression has been in the past.  Indeed it is probable that the two events will be forever linked as classic examples of modern cataclysmic economic and commercial breakdown.

But those of us living through such shattering events are being forced to make decisions that few of our grandparents and great grandparents ever had to make.   Mass home ownership, we have all learnt, can wear two masks – one of comedy and the other of tragedy.

Much depends now on how quickly that shiny pinball comes to rest.  But meanwhile there are sure signs that the real estate buying and selling public are fed up with this recession, they are not prepared to put their lives on hold while the governments across the world get their policies sorted out, or until the banks get their houses in order or even until price correction ends and property regains its upward momentum.

Buyers are visiting real estate offices in greater numbers, checking online and inspecting homes.  And why shouldn’t they be?  There is great choice, prices have come down dramatically and those with the finance can enjoy some of the lowest interest rates ever.

There are many aspects for your Canadian clients to consider when they are purchasing property within the country, such as the quality of local schools, the cost of financing, etc. Fortunately, as REALTORS® you have the resources to make their purchase process as easy and stress free as possible…. Even though the price in Canadian Dollars will remain a constant CAD$500,000 over the next 30 days, the cost to your client in Pounds Sterling or US Dollars will be fluctuating along with the currency market…. But, over the next 30 days the US dollar severely weakened relative to the CAD, and at the end of the closing period in early May the $/CAD rate had fallen to 1.1020.

…One way to protect your American or UK clients against these currency risks is to recommend a currency specialist like HIFX Inc., who offers a free service that can lock in an exchange rate for your clients for up to 2 years. Currency specialists can also typically provide a much better exchange rate than the banks at zero cost to your client, resulting in a 1%-3% tangible savings.

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Inman News (subscription) reports that the Canadian Real Estate Association ’s national multiple listing service in November rose to the fourth highest seasonally adjusted monthly level on record.

Vacation Home – Village of Chester
…Inman goes on to say “A seasonally adjusted total of 41,724 homes traded hands in November, representing a gain of 1.6 percent compared to the previous month. Higher activity in Alberta and Ontario more than offset fewer sales in British Columbia and Quebec, the association reported.”

…The CREA Report says “Sales activity set new records for the month of November on a national basis and in … Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Year-to-date, actual (unadjusted) sales increased compared to the same period in 2004 in … Nova Scotia.”

In addition, Dollar volume set a new monthly record in … Nova Scotia, and reached its highest level ever for the month of November in every other province except Prince Edward Island.

The national MLS residential average price hit $219,060 in November, shattering all previous monthly records, the association reported.

…MLS residential average price reached its highest monthly level on record in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec, and set new records for the month of November in every other province except Newfoundland, the association announced.”

INMAN REAL ESTATE NEWS – REPORTS RECORD PACE FOR CANADIAN HOME SALES

Village of Chester – Overlooking the Harbour
Inman News (subscription) reports that the Canadian Real Estate Association ’s national multiple listing service in November rose to the fourth highest seasonally adjusted monthly level on record. With sales activity looking to set a new annual record for 2005.

Inman goes on to say “A seasonally adjusted total of 41,724 homes traded hands in November, representing a gain of 1.6 percent compared to the previous month. Higher activity in Alberta and Ontario more than offset fewer sales in British Columbia and Quebec, the association reported.” With “Year-to-date, transactions were running 4.9 percent ahead of levels recorded during the first 11 months of last year.”

The CREA Report says “Sales activity set new records for the month of November on a national basis and in … Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Year-to-date, actual (unadjusted) sales increased compared to the same period in 2004 in … Nova Scotia.”

In addition, Dollar volume set a new monthly record in … Nova Scotia, and reached its highest level ever for the month of November in every other province except Prince Edward Island.

On the Front Harbour – Village of Chester
The national MLS residential average price hit $219,060 in November, shattering all previous monthly records, the association reported.

Here is hard evidence that our real estate is appreciating. Inman reports, “Average home prices rose 11 percent compared to the same month in 2004. November was also the sixth consecutive month in which year-over-year price growth exceeded 10 percent. MLS residential average price reached its highest monthly level on record in Alberta, Ontario and Quebec, and set new records for the month of November in every other province except Newfoundland, the association announced.”

The report includes all housing types. MLS data is available from the Conference Board of Canada.

~Edited for content~ Dec 23, 2005

~ Original Copyright 2005 Inman News on quoted content.

Is A Canadain Home an Investement for a US citizen? The answer is yes, but read these words courtesy of Inman News (more…)

The volume of actual high-end sales receded during 2003, however, in most cases the asking prices did not fall off…. Through the latter part of 2003 and 2004, price adjustments were being made on many properties to attempt to lessen the apparent gap between asking and selling prices.

…The nature of our middle and high-end market is that an asking price is usually (but not always) set and not usually lowered through its marketing span.

Tradewinds Realty Incorporated
Market Condition Update September 2005

Background 2001 – 2004

The high-end ($1,000,000+) real estate market softened in 2003. After the banner years of 2001 and 2002, the market started to fall off towards the end of 2002. While it was not widely recognized at that time, a review of our sales patterns confirms this downward trend. Through 2003 and 2004, we have what I refer to as a plateaued market, where prices are settled-in until the next upward trend. Unfortunately, the events of 9/11 triggered the last upward trend in real estate values in the province. As the Americans started to purchase our homes in greater numbers, this scarred the local and Upper-Canadian clients into taking action. They were concerned that many of the better properties would be purchased or the market prices would trend up beyond their ability to purchase.

The volume of actual high-end sales receded during 2003, however, in most cases the asking prices did not fall off. This has lead to a large gap in prices being offered against asking prices. Through the latter part of 2003 and 2004, price adjustments were being made on many properties to attempt to lessen the apparent gap between asking and selling prices. While not very successful, it did allow us to sell a few higher-prices homes in 2003 and with greater success in 2004. Our gross sales for 2004 were fifty-five million ($55,000,000) in real estate sales.

First 9 months 2005
The luxury real estate market in the 2005 season has been fairly good. Early in 2005 we successfully brokered a near 3 million dollar sale in the village of Chester, later in the year we were the selling agents for a 2 million dollar sale in Martins River. Most recently we negotiated an offer for over a million dollar home in Annapolis Royal. The important thing to realize with these sales of these homes, is that they have been on the market for 1 to 2 years and have now sold in the latter part of 2005. At present the market condition scale shows a sellers market on oceanfront land and a buyers market for existing housing.

The middle market for $500,000 to $1,000,000 has also been good. Well priced homes are selling in the market and sellers seem to be content with the selling prices.

The nature of our middle and high-end market is that an asking price is usually (but not always) set and not usually lowered through its marketing span. This is due to the non-transient nature of our sellers, as the motivation in selling is tied to the perceived value of the property. There is little necessity to discount the value in order to move it faster on the market. Most of our clients fall in one of two categories, estate sale of family property or an up-sizing/down-sizing of existing property.

It is still extremely important to determine the correct asking pricing for the property. Pricing is especially important in a buyers market and/or plateaued market like the one we are presently experiencing. Real estate can be considered a commodity and as such, pricing is very important to the market place.

tim harris

Dollar volume set new monthly records in British Columbia and Alberta, and reached its highest level ever for the month of March in all provinces except Ontario and Prince Edward Island.

…”Unless new listings pick up over the next few months, the continuing seller’s market will keep year-over-year average price increases in the range from six to eight percent until the late autumn when they are expected to become more muted.”

Average home price nears $195,000 in March
Thursday, April 28, 2005

Inman News

Existing-home sales via the Multiple Listing Service in Canada remained strong in March 2005, with seasonally adjusted sales activity virtually unchanged from the previous month.

A total of 38,198 homes traded hands via the MLS in March, representing an increase of 0.2 percent compared to the 38,139 units sold in February.

Sales activity shattered all previous quarterly records in Alberta and New Brunswick, and set new first-quarter records in Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island.

Seasonally adjusted new listings numbered 61,303 in March, which is virtually unchanged from the 61,443 units listed in February. On a quarterly basis, new listings rose 0.8 percent from the previous quarter to 182,841 units.

New listings reached their highest quarterly level on record in the province of Alberta, and reached their highest first quarter levels ever in Newfoundland and New Brunswick. With sales and new listings in the first quarter of 2005 virtually unchanged from the previous quarter, market balance remained stable.

Seasonally adjusted dollar volume was valued at $7.27 billion ($9.1 billion Canadian), which represents a decline of 0.2 percent from the previous month. In the first quarter, dollar volume reached $21.6 billion ($27 billion Canadian). This represents an increase of 2.7 percent compared to fourth-quarter 2004. Dollar volume in first-quarter 2005 came close to its highest quarterly level on record, which was set in the second quarter of 2004.

Dollar volume set new monthly records in British Columbia and Alberta, and reached its highest level ever for the month of March in all provinces except Ontario and Prince Edward Island. Dollar volume also posted its strongest first quarter on record on a national basis, and in all provinces except Prince Edward Island.

The national MLS residential average price rose by 9.1 percent year-over-year to $194,649 ($243,779 Canadian) in March. Average price in the first quarter of 2005 was up 8.5 percent compared to the same quarter in 2004.

Average price reached its highest monthly level on record in March on a national basis, and in British Columbia, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Nova Scotia. Average price also reached its highest quarterly level on a national basis, and in all provinces except Prince Edward Island.

“With interest rates now expected to hold steady until later this year, sales will remain strong until interest rates begin to rise,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist for the Canadian Real Estate Association. “Unless new listings pick up over the next few months, the continuing seller’s market will keep year-over-year average price increases in the range from six to eight percent until the late autumn when they are expected to become more muted.”

CREA cautions that average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but this does not indicate actual prices in centers comprised of widely divergent neighborhoods or account for price differentials between geographical areas. Statistical information contained in this report includes all housing types.

MLS data is available from the Conference Board of Canada at http://www.conferenceboard.ca/Weblinx.

I have spent the first part of my life in this country; therefore, I leave well after I have learned of the shortcomings of the United States and definitely not before fully understanding what it is to be American.
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January of 2005 adopted a new real estate privacy policy enacted for Canada. With that enactment you as a consumer have more protection and power to ensure how you private information is handled.
Privacy, privacy, privacy………..
That is all we hear these days. I need more privacy. Well, we are doing our best to accommodate your privacy in our industry.

Recently a client asked me a question about another client that had purchased a property. I politely answered that I couldn’t answer the question as it was private information. He questioned my answer. He didn’t think what he had asked was a big deal. I said that it may not be a big deal to him, but it may be to the client.

In any event a privacy policy has been adopted by all the Provinces in Canada (some longer than others) As of January 2005. This is what it looks like.

TRADEWINDS REALTY PRIVACY POLICY and the Nova Scotia Real Estate Industry as a whole

PRINCIPLE 1
ACCOUNTABILITY
Members are responsible for the proper management of all personal information under their control, and shall designate one or more persons to be accountable for compliance.

PRINCIPLE 2
IDENTIFYING THE PURPOSES
OF PERSONAL INFORMATION
Members shall identify the purposes of collecting information before or at the time the information is collected.

PRINCIPLE 3
OBTAINING CONSENT
The knowledge and consent of the consumer are required for the collection, use or disclosure of personal information except where inappropriate.

PRINCIPLE 4
LIMITING COLLECTION OF PERSONAL INFORMATION
Members shall limit the collection of personal information to that which is necessary for the purposes identified.

PRINCIPLE 5
LIMITING USE, DISCLOSURE AND RETENTION OF PERSONAL INFORMATION
Members shall use or disclose personal information only for the reason it was collected, except with the consent of the consumer or as required by law.

PRINCIPLE 6
ACCURACY OF PERSONAL INFORMATION
Members shall keep personal information as accurate, complete, current and relevant as necessary for its identified purpose.

PRINCIPLE 7
PROTECTING INFORMATION
Members shall protect personal information with safeguards appropriate to the sensitivity of the information.

PRINCIPLE 8
OPENNESS CONCERNING
POLICIES AND PRACTICES
Members shall make readily available to consumers specific information about their policies and practices relating to the management of personal information.

PRINCIPLE 9
CONSUMER ACCESS TO
PERSONAL INFORMATION
Upon request, members shall inform a consumer of the existence, use and disclosure of his or her personal information and shall give the individual access to that information.

PRINCIPLE 10
CHALLENGING COMPLIANCE
A consumer shall be able to address a challenge concerning compliance with the above principles to the designated accountable person or persons in the member office.

EMAIL Tim Harris with a comment

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This past week Centrury 21 and CMHC released information on how the Altlantic Canada Housing is going to function.
Don Lawby, President and Chief Operating Officer of Century 21 Canada Limited Partnership, says housing markets continue to be driven by low interest rates and a strong economy that is providing job stability, consumer confidence and an increasing number of home buyers.
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Time is running out. A letter “2005 Assessment Notices” from Turner Drake. Reprinted by kind permission of Mike Turner.
Turner drake
& partners
Real Estate Counsellors, Brokers & Valuers

21 January 2005

Dear Tim,

Re: 2005 Assessment Notices – Nova Scotia

We refer to our letter of the 10^th January 2005 (PDF DOWNLOAD) wherein we gave you some decision rules to help in deciding whether you should appeal your assessment. You now have less than 10 days left in which to appeal. The basis for your real estate assessment is the market value of your property on the 1^st January 2003 (the base date). However even if your assessment is less than its market value on the base date, you may still have grounds on which to mount a successful appeal. Your property may be unfairly assessed because of errors in the tax assessor’s methodology or computations, or because the physical state of your property has changed. Most of the Province of Nova Scotia assessors are open to reasoned argument. They are willing to amend assessments, provided that we can demonstrate that the assessments are incorrect. Assessment is a mass appraisal process and frankly the assessors have an impossible job given their time and manpower constraints. We have identified 17 key fields in the assessment process that assessors everywhere routinely miscalculate, misinterpret or miss altogether.

If you have concerns about your assessment you should file a protective appeal utilising the following wording:

“The assessment is excessive, unfair, not uniform with other assessments, and any other grounds that may appear”.

If you wish to appoint us as your agent, please so state on your Notice of Appeal, then fax us (1-902-429-1891) a copy of your Notice of Appeal. (If you prefer, we will be glad to file the appeal for you). Before doing so, please do not hesitate to call Tom Mills , Giselle Kakamousias or Mike Turner , at 1-800-567-3033 for an estimate of the cost of proceeding with Stage 1 (the Assessment Audit).

We will need the approximate gross floor area of the buildings on your property in order to prepare the estimate. Irrespective of whether you call us, we will not undertake any work until you know what it will cost and have given us your authorisation to proceed. Once we have your authority to do so we will set in motion Stage 1 of the following process:

Stage 1 – Assessment Audit

We review the assessment and compare it with other assessments and the costing systems employed by the Assessor. We report to you by letter detailing our estimate of the correct assessment, the potential tax savings, recommended course of action, probability of success and associated cost.

The recommended course of action will usually be (1) negotiation with the Assessor, or (2) abandonment of the appeal. We will not undertake frivolous appeals. We achieve tax savings with virtually every appeal we undertake because the assessors recognise that we do not get involved unless there are genuine grounds for questioning the assessment.

Stage 2 – Negotiation

If you wish us to proceed with the appeal we will open negotiations with the Assessor. It is our experience that over 75% of all appeals in Nova Scotia can be settled by negotiation. However, if we are unable to reach a satisfactory settlement we report back to you by letter detailing our recommended course of action, the probability of its success and the associated cost.

The recommended course of action will usually be either, (1) proceed to the Appeal Board or, (2) abandonment of the appeal.

Stage 3 – Appeal Court

We will appear on your behalf to present your case before the Appeal Board.

The decision whether to proceed to each stage rests entirely with you: the potential tax savings and the probability of achieving them have to be weighed against the cost involved.

There is some danger in appealing a property which is underassessed since it leaves the opportunity open for an unscrupulous assessor to increase the assessment. In order to minimise this risk, you should notify us as soon as you file the Notice of Appeal so that we can commence our assessment audit without delay.

Please do not attempt to negotiate a reduction in assessment yourself before approaching us to do it for you. It makes it doubly difficult, raises the cost and reduces your chance of getting the tax savings you deserve. We are most successful with those cases where we are involved at the outset. We also find that clients who have successfully appealed their assessments in the past … have invariably left money on the table.

If you have any questions regarding this letter, or your assessment, Tom , Giselle or I will be glad to help you. Please give one of us a call at 1-800-567-3033 (Halifax/Dartmouth 429-1811).

Yours very truly,

TURNER DRAKE & PARTNERS LTD.

MICHAEL S. TURNER
President

EMAIL Tim Harris with a comment

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